US Politics Daily@uspoliticsdailyPrediction markets were busy on midterm election night, with traders buying and selling as results came in.
Looking back, more than 87% of election markets on Kalshi and Polymarket had put the eventual winner at 90% or higher a day before the vote. Trading on midterm contracts more than tripled from late October into election week, though sports still draw far more volume.
Forecaster Nate Silver disputed claims that the markets deserved credit for calling races, saying forecast models influenced how prices moved.
