Polymarket

US Politics Daily@uspoliticsdaily

Prediction markets were busy on midterm election night, with traders buying and selling as results came in.

Looking back, more than 87% of election markets on Kalshi and Polymarket had put the eventual winner at 90% or higher a day before the vote. Trading on midterm contracts more than tripled from late October into election week, though sports still draw far more volume.

Forecaster Nate Silver disputed claims that the markets deserved credit for calling races, saying forecast models influenced how prices moved.

Hollywood Express@hollywoodexpress

Major studios and production firms now bar employees from betting on Kalshi and Polymarket with confidential information. That covers casting calls, studio earnings, production schedules and release dates, along with passing tips to friends or family.

At least one company has set up an anonymous hotline for reporting colleagues suspected of betting on privileged details. Kalshi revealed in February that a video editor at MrBeast's company made $5,000 this way, and was fired and handed a $20,000 penalty.